How rare is your coin?

How can one 1771 skilling coin achieve a price of USD 10.000,- and a similar coin from the same period sell for only USD 20,-? While the total mintage of these coins was huge, there is a big difference in the occurrence of the various die combinations. We’ve tried to use a combination of statistical methodology, findings from various sources and educated guesswork to produce a list of how many coins we believe there exists of every die combination.

The basis for our analysis is that there still exist approximately 50.000 coins from the 1771 skilling mintage among collectors around the world. This number is probably on the high side, as we believe that the exact number is probably somewhere between 30.000 and 50.000. As we’ve browsed through more than 5000 coins ourselves and collected information of rare coins from other sources, we argue that our information is sufficient to make statistical predictions about die mix occurrences.

In the table below, we've divided the occurrences of the various die combinations into six groups from the very rare (only 1-10 coins exist) to the abundant (more than 200 coins exist) occurrences. As of December 2019 we’ve registered 937 die combinations, where 196 are categorized as "Very Rare". These 196 die combinations constitute a total of approximately 1000 coins or 2% of the remaining 1771 skilling coins.

Please take a look at the following overview for our judgement about the rarity of your coin: